Nic Bernstein
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
The biggest story you won't see in the papers tomorrow...
"Kerry wins easily in NH over Dean; Edwards, Clark battle for 3rd"
(New Hampshire Union Leader, January 28, 2004)
"Kerry claims victory in New Hampshire"
(CNN Web site www.cnn.com, January 27, 2004)
"John Kerry Wins Easily in New Hampshire"
(New York Times, www.nytimes.com, January 28, 2004)
The headlines you will read tomorrow are all pretty much the same, and the implicit or explicit message will be the same as well, "... establish the four-term senator as the party's presidential front-runner ..." Sometimes, though, the more important story goes unreported, or unnoticed, by the mainstream press – even when it is right under their noses.
Displayed on CNN's web site, but not remarked upon, is the fact that in the delegate count which actually matters, Dean is ahead! You see, the press is focusing on the nomination battle as though it were a general election. That is how most people think about it as well – that doesn't make it so, however.
The nomination is a party race, which abides by party rules. In the case of the Democratic Party that includes the allocation of "Super-Delegates." This is far from a simple process, as described by CNN and ABC-News. The ranks of the "Unpledged Delegates" are comprised of "...the party activists and leaders, local elected officials, current Democratic governors and members of Congress, and former presidents, vice presidents, congressional leaders, and DNC chairs."
Curious to see what your state's allocation is? Check the Democratic National Committee's web site for details, and more about the rules for delegate selection may be found there as well.
What does this mean for Dean and Kerry? Well, currently, it looks as though Dean leads Kerry 113 to 94. Of the 304 delegates of all stripes selected so far, Dean has 37% while Kerry has 31%, Edwards 12%, Clark 10%, etc.
So, while the pledged delegate race may be going Kerry's way, Dean has a 25% lead in the numbers that count.
Let me know when you read that in the papers.
Best regards,
-nic